The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its estimate for the economic losses to the global airline industry from the coronavirus pandemic to $314 billion, up 25% from the $252 billion forecasted on March 24.
The IATA said it was basing its estimate on a projected 6% decrease in GDP in the second quarter. It said the new projections reflected a “significant deepening of the crisis” and the expectation that “severe” domestic travel restrictions would last three months. International travel restrictions would likely last more than three months.
“Passenger demand closely follows GDP progression,” the trade group said in a statement. “The impact of reduced economic activity in Q2 alone would result in an 8% fall in passenger demand in the third quarter.”
It said it expected a 55% drop in 2020 passenger revenue compared with last year and a 48% drop in traffic based on revenue passenger kilometers.